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专家:北京召见金正恩,要他先唔习近平

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发表于 2018-3-27 12:55:41 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
美国之音




专家对朝鲜领导人金正恩突然秘密访问北京解读不一。有的认为这是宗主国召见附庸国元首,显示北京对朝鲜的终极影响力;有的认为美朝间互动刺激了怕被边缘化的北京。

朝鲜领导人金正恩可能正在北京访问。这一消息已经被很多美国媒体报道,还未得到任何官方确认,彭博新闻引用了匿名的消息来源。不过一位朝鲜问题专家认为,这个消息是可信的。

章家敦是一位在新泽西州的朝鲜问题专家,著有《核对决:朝鲜挑战世界》一书。星期一,章家敦在接受美国之音电话采访时表示,他相信这一消息是真实的。他说,金正恩就像是北京的诸侯,北京对朝鲜在经济、外交上有着极大影响力,外界不应该对金正恩被召到中国首都感到惊讶。

韩朝、美朝峰会前必须先见习近平

章家敦:“北京对朝鲜有着极大的影响力,他们选择不总是施加这一影响力。当他们真的想控制时,他们就把绳子拉紧一点。顺便说一句,他们刚刚拉紧了绳子。我们必须记得,金正恩提出直接跟美国总统会晤,孤立了中国,因此,北京为了要介入这一进程而告诉金正恩,你必须得在跟韩国总统文在寅和美国总统川普会晤前,先来见过中国的统治者习近平。”

在未来数月,金正恩将于韩国总统文在寅和美国总统川普举行峰会。

北京怕被边缘化才密会金正恩

华盛顿智库斯廷森中心的朝鲜和中国问题专家孙韵认为,这一最新发展显示了金正恩更为主动。她告诉“商业内幕”,美国总统川普接受与金正日会面的举动提高了这位朝鲜领导人的地位,这很可能使中国更愿意跟他交谈,以避免在未来决定朝鲜半岛命运的谈判中被边缘化。

她说,中国担心被排除在美朝谈判之外,因为谈判的结果可能导致南北统一,或美国在朝鲜的存在,这两者都与中国的战略利益背道而驰。

金正恩上台后的一系列举动确实已经使朝中关系日益恶化。奥巴马政府时负责东亚事务的助理国务卿拉塞尔现任纽约亚洲协会政策研究所高级研究员。他认为,金正恩过去几年进行的遭国际社会强烈谴责的核武导弹试射,最被羞辱的就是北京。他说,北京上次派出习近平特使宋涛访问朝鲜,结果吃了闭门羹,

朝鲜核导试射精准羞辱北京

拉塞尔:“金正恩一直拒绝接受北京的高级特使,但在他最近接受习近平特使宋涛访问时,不仅没有亲自接见,而且还羞辱了他。我上次去北京时,我的处理朝鲜事务的中国朋友说,宋涛甚至连杯水都没有被招待,这成为亚洲的终极羞辱。”

拉塞尔说,朝鲜过去每次试射几乎是精准地吻合了北京的一系列重大活动,如金砖国家峰会、一带一路论坛、与普京的峰会,与川普的海湖庄园峰会,甚至选择中国农历新年,他说,金正恩还被指谋杀了貌似受中国保护的他的兄长金正男,他不仅清洗而且杀害了一大批朝鲜体制中的同情中国者。”

木偶牵线人还是北京

不过,章家敦认为,这种羞辱对北京来说并不是非常重要。中国选择只在最需要的时候使用其影响力。章家敦说:

“比如,金正恩在去年10月中共19大召开期间就没有发射导弹。我肯定习近平告诉过金正恩,绝不希望任何事情干扰这一重大活动。而19大一结束,金正恩立刻送去了热烈祝贺。这是习近平需要的。”

章家敦认为,必须了解中朝关系的本质。“中国对朝鲜有着极大的影响力,中国可以很快解决朝鲜的核武器或其它问题,如果北京选择这样做的话。北京没有选择这样做是因为北京希望朝鲜导致日本、韩国和美国的不稳定。必须记住这里是木偶和玩木偶的关系,中国是玩木偶的。”

不过,章家敦认为,金正恩突然访问北京这一最新发展,对东亚和平进程将是不利的。他认为,习近平将使金正日与韩国、美国的峰会变得更为困难。
发表于 昨天 14:29 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 xiaomier 于 2018-4-23 17:05 编辑

老金有觉悟啊 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