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发表于 2016-12-8 14:28:00
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U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis 的國際戰略和希拉里一樣，強調與中共合作。此人父母是東正教，本人是自由主義派。有他的文章為證：Global Affairs with President-Elect Trump: Buckle Up
by JAMES STAVRIDIS on NOVEMBER 10, 2016 · LEAVE A COMMENT
As we take a collective deep breath and review the outcome of this long and unfortunately ugly presidential campaign, there are more questions than answers for the U.S. body politic domestically. But one thing is clear: our new President will face a very full inbox over the coming months. Given his lack of experience in both governance generally and foreign affairs particularly, he will hopefully bring a businessman’s ability to prioritize and ultimately triage some of the most pressing problems ahead. He will also bring in a largely unknown foreign policy, national security, intelligence and cyber security team.
As a general philosophy, we should expect that the pragmatic, anti-trade, and somewhat isolationist themes of the campaign to become the core elements of President-elect Donald Trump’s foreign policy. But what are the specific issues that will land first on his desk in January?
First will be Russia. Cooperation will be difficult, and there will be a great deal of confrontation ahead. President Trump should confront where he must and cooperate where he can, all the while seeking a transactional, pragmatic relationship with Russia.
A close second challenge will be creating a plan for dealing with North Korea. With a growing nuclear arsenal, leader Kim Jung Un frequently points out his ability to threaten U.S. allies. President Trump will need Chinese cooperation, aggressive cyber forces, high tech missile defense, and a closely coordinated plan with our South Korean allies.
Third in the stack will be relations with China, both tactically and strategically. On the tactical level, growing Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and in the cyber sphere will be significant irritants in the relationship between the world’s two biggest powers. On the other hand, there is still room for strategic cooperation over time in everything from humanitarian operations to medical diplomacy to climate control. The key for President Trump will be maintaining open lines of communication to the Chinese while consolidating existing U.S. alliances in the region.
In the Middle East, President Trump will face a series of difficult decisions in the campaign to defeat the Islamic State and find a path forward in Syria. By January, fighting should shift to defeating global terrorist strikes, tracking jihadist returnees to Europe and shutting down criminal income streams. In terms of Syria, it means finding a way to cooperate with Russia, negotiating an eventual departure of Assad and at least considering a partition of the increasingly artificial state of Syria.
Moving beyond the geographic issues, President Trump will need to amp up the U.S. government’s game on cyber security. It seems increasingly evident that a major cyber event is coming, and he’ll need to devote significant attention and human capital to craft a workable, private-public partnership that creates real security for the nation in cyber.
A sixth crucial security concern may well be in the world of biology, where in just recent years, we have seen the devastating impact of Ebola and Zika. There will be profound international security aspects to a pandemic, and we are collectively under-prepared for such an eventuality.
And finally, there are some organizations that are going to have to work more closely to secure alliances with President Trump in the coming years, including NATO. The President-elect has never made a secret of the fact that he holds NATO, in its current form, in low regard. Advocates for NATO will now have to go back to basics. They do not have to accept the validity of President-elect Trump’s critiques of NATO, but they do have to accept their legitimacy. America’s continued leadership of this venerable institution depends on persuading the new president-elect that the alliance is good value for the money. There is a strong business case to be made in favor of preserving most — but, crucially, not all — aspects of NATO in its present form. I discussed this in Foreign Policy, and you can read the full piece here.
The good news is that the President-elect has broad executive experience, a businessman’s direct approach to dealing with turbulence and a distinctive style of negotiations in which he reposes plenty of confidence. The bad news is that the challenges are worrisomely real, nearly intractable and full of contradictions. Buckle up.
I wrote about this more in-depth in TIME last week, which you can read here.
As always, thank you for reading. 連接http://sites.tufts.edu/fletcherd ... ct-trump-buckle-up/ |
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发表于 2016-11-29 17:51:45
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