西方的制裁谴责无助遏止中国势力扩张

FRANKSTON

上报




中国不把自己看成崛起的强权，而是回归的强权……未来若中国强势在经济、文化、政治、军事方面施加影响力，它不会认为此乃破格挑战世界秩序——而是让诸事回归正常状态。——季辛吉，《论中国》

《大熊猫的利爪》作者文达峰（Jonathan Manthorpe）在导论引用美国知名外交家与国际事务专家季辛吉（Henry Kissinger）的话，无非是想让众人了解，中国共产党扩张国际势力的作为并不会有停止的一天，让全世界都归他们发号施令恐怕就是共产党的目标。

2018年，澳洲作者克莱夫.汉密尔顿（Clive Hamilton）出版《无声的入侵：中国因素在澳洲》的计划，便因出版社担心遭到中国报复而取消。

中国带来威胁已是无法掩盖的事实，也有愈来愈多国家体悟到这点。文达峰透过这本书想告诉读者，面对势力崛起的新中国，必须采取不同方式，“少一些自我欺骗，多一些勇气与智慧”。

作者文达峰透过电子邮件接受《上报》记者的专访，探讨加拿大改变友中态度背后的契机、西方国家华裔面临的难题、国际关系平衡及香港国安法带来的影响。

以下为《上报》访题，以及作者回应的译文、原文。

问：您是否认为有特殊事件导致加拿大对中国采取强硬立场？如果没有，您会如何描述加拿大政府与公民意识到中国带来威胁这个过程呢？

答：毫无疑问地，华为事件和中国共产党处理新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）的方式，对加拿大带来严重影响。最新民调显示，85%的加拿大人对中华人民共和国与中国共产党抱持负面态度。会出现这结果是因为，加拿大执行国际逮捕令拘捕华为财务长孟晚舟，要将她引渡到美国后，中国共产党逮捕两位加拿大公民作为人质。另外，加拿大人深信北京试图掩盖武汉爆发的新冠肺炎，若是中国共产党当初可以诚实以对，就不会有这么多人无辜丧命。

There is no doubt that the Huawei Affair and the way the PRC dealt with the COVID-19 pandemic has had a strong impact in Canada. The latest polls show that 85 percent of Canadians have a negative view of the PRC and the CCP. That view has been caused by the CCP taking two Canadians hostage after Canada honoured an international arrest warrant to detain Huawei executive Meng Wan-zhou for extradition to the United States. Also，there is a strong belief among Canadians that Beijing tried to cover up the caronavirus outbreak in Wuhan and that many lives could have been saved if the CCP had been honest.

问：中国一直以来都使用歧视华人来攻击西方国家，请问这些国家完全注意到这种陷阱的存在吗？面对这样的指控，他们可以如何回应？

答：多数国家都相当清楚这种陷阱。加拿大有150万名公民是华裔族群，我们知道中华人民共和国并不等同中国，中国共产党也不等于中国人民，但就跟其他有大量华裔人口的国家一样，我们最大的问题是中共统战部试图威吓这些华人，或是施压他们，要求他们的第一效忠对象是中华人民共和国。

Most Canadians are well aware of this trap. We have 1.5 million Canadians who are of ethnic Chinese heritage. We know that the PRC is not China and that the CCP is not the Chinese people. But，like other countries with large groups of ethnic Chinese citizens，our big problem is attempts by the United Front Work Department to intimidate these people or to pressue them by insisting that their first loyalty should be to the PRC.

问：中国明显企图渗入外国公司和机构，其影响力却过于庞大而难以无视。然而，世界主要国家似乎无法团结一心对抗中国。请问您如何看到国际关系中的权力平衡？中国最终会超越先进国家吗？

答：我认为中国已经具备你所描述的力量，但我在各地观察到的迹象显示，对于中华人民共和国的欺凌和掌权，现在出现了广泛的反制力量，特别是在民主国家，也包括像是接受一带一路倡议（Belt and Road Initiative）的国家。在加拿大，政府针对香港新国安法祭出制裁和停止引渡协议，从这样的负面态度就可以看出这点。此外，渥太华政府强调“跨太平洋伙伴全面进展协定”（Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership，CPTPP），视CPTPP为其与亚洲关系的核心，同样体现了上述观点。邀请台湾加入CPTPP也是一项强力行动。

I think China has had the power that you describe. But I see signs everywhere，especially among the democracies，but also，for example，among the countries that have taken Belt and Road Iniative contracts，that there is now widespread push-back against PRC bullying and assumption of power. In Canada it is evident in the government‘s negative reaction to the new security law in Hong Kong，with the application of sanctions and ending the extradition agreement. It is also evident in the Ottawa government’s emphasis on the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership as the core of its relationship with Asia. There is also a strong movement here to invite Taiwan to join the CPTPP.

问：中国对香港通过涉猎范围广泛的新国安法。台湾、加拿大、美国、欧盟和其他国家对此予以谴责，部分甚至采取行动，想要遏制中国持续成长的影响力。您认为这些措施发挥效果了吗？或是未来会有所作用呢？为什么？

答：从1997年（香港）回归开始，中国共产党就下定决心要确保，香港不会把可能挑战一党制国家的思想传染到大陆内地。要达成这目标，确保该党能够压制香港的改革运动家，是相当重要的一部分。所以，我不觉得中国共产党会受到国际压力，针对港版国安法限缩内容或是撤回法案，但我认为中国共产党会谨慎使用这条法律。

虽然全世界还深陷新冠肺炎的泥淖，共产党可能会围捕、审判和监禁一些最引人注目的民主人士，特别是支持独立的运动家。这主要是为了达到杀鸡儆猴的作用。但在那之后，共产党可能只会把法律放著作为威胁之用，时不时用该法提醒大家，政治行动主义（编按：即活跃于政治活动）很危险。中国共产党也可能会试图向国际商界人士保证，香港仍然是与中国做生意的良好门户，但香港作为中华人民共和国的金融中心，其重要性已远不及1997年当时。

From the handover in 1997 the CCP has been determined to insure that Hong Kong doesn‘t infect the Mainland with ideas that might challenge the one-party state. Insuring that the party can silence reform activists in Hong Kong has been an essential part of that effort. So I don’t think international condemnation will force the CCP to distil or withdraw the Hong Kong security law. But I think the CCP will be careful how it applies the law. While the world is still pre-occupied with COVID-19 it will probably round up，try，and imprison a few of the most high-profile pro-democracy and especially the pro-independence activists. This will be on the principle of killing the chicken to scare the monkey. But after that the party will probably just keep the law there as a threat. Every now and then it may use the law to remind everyone that political activism is dangerous. The CCP may also make some efforts to reassure international business people that Hong Kong is still a good gateway for business with the PRC，but Hong Kong's importance as a financial centre for the PRC is now much less than it was in 1997.

雨夜

季辛吉是个老油条了，一贯说些不疼不痒是是而非的胡话。