刘蔚：数学，地理，历史联合发现武汉肺炎来自中共实验室

刘蔚谈论人权

WeiLiu: Math, Geography, History Together Found Covid-19 Is from the Lab in China612                                             

                    刘蔚：数学，地理，历史联合发现武汉肺炎来自中共实验室 612

                         By Wei Liu, U. S.citizen, U. S. veteran in Minnesota, August 2021

                       作者：刘蔚，美国公民，美军退伍军人2021年8月写于明尼苏达州

                          

                                                                                                                 

        Covid-19 has caused catastrophe inAmerica, in the world and people have to know the origin of it. As a human, myway is multi-discipline study, using math, geography and history together andfound Covid-19 is from the lab in China.

        武汉肺炎给美国，给世界带来了巨大的灾难，人们必须知道它的来源。作为一个地球人，我的途径是多学科研究，就是用数学，地理，历史一起发现武汉肺炎来自中共的实验室。

        Sars, Severe Acute RespiratorySyndrome, 2002 is from China too. The first case of Sars was in November 2002and China reported it to WHO in February 2003, taking three months for China toreport. China claimed Sars is from the nature or wild animal, particularlyGuangdong Province people in China eating civet cat. The loss brought by Sarsis comparatively limited, with 27 Americans, 5,000 Chinese, 8,000 people in theworld infected, ended in July 2003, lasted for 8 months. And China’s saying thatSars is from nature got by.

        2002年爆发的萨斯，严重呼吸道症状，也来自中国。萨斯最早病例是在2002年11月的中国，而中共是在2003年2月向世界卫生组织报告的，花了三个月的时间报告。中共声称萨斯来自自然或者野生动物，是广东人吃果子狸。萨斯带来的损害是有限的，27名美国人，约5000名中国人，8000名地球人感染，2003年8月萨斯结束，持续了8个月的时间。中共有关萨斯来自自然的说法就混过去了。

        British scientist discovered theearliest case of Covid-19 in China is October 2019. China just by the requestof WHO, reported it to WHO in January 2020, taking another 3 months for Chinato report. Also, this time China, more accurate, Chinese Communist Party,claimed it is from the nature or wild animal too, particularly a food marketselling wild animal for food in Wuhan, China. American scientist in Seattlediscovered the Covid-19 type in that food market is not earliest type, meaningfood market is not the origin of Covid-19.

        英国科学家发现武汉肺炎的最早病例是2019年10月的中国。而中共是在2020年1月在世界卫生组织的要求下，才对世界卫生组织做了报告。这一次中共又花了三个月时间才报告。中共也再一次地说病毒来自自然或野生动物，来自华南海鲜市场。在西雅图的美国科学家发现在华南海鲜市场的病毒序列并不是最早的病毒序列，就是说华南海鲜市场不是武汉肺炎的发源地。

        The above is the background. We knowboth Sars 2002 and Covid-19 are from China. The virus is either from the natureor from the lab. Human touched or raised animal is not nature. Only wild animalis nature. Though we cannot get exact number of wild animals by country, weknow the number of wild animals is based on the land area or land mass. So weview the number of wild animal by land mass. China’s land area is 9.6 millionsquare kilometers and the land area of the world is 149 million squarekilometers. This is geography. The proportion of land China has in the world =9.6 million/149 million = 1/16. China’s average forest and grassland per squaremile is below the average level of the world, meaning its wild animal level isbelow the average level of the world, meaning China has at most 1/16 of thewild animals in the world. China has lots of flies, mosquitoes, but those areinvertebrate. Invertebrate does not have back bone, blood circulation system,entirely different from vertebrate like human. Virus from invertebrate cannotinfect human at all. So we do not worry about invertebrate. Wild animal in thisarticle means vertebrate, not invertebrate.

        以上就是背景情况。我们知道2002年的萨斯和2019年爆发的武汉肺炎都来自中国。病毒要么来自自然，要么来自实验室，没有第三种可能性。人接触或养殖的动物不是自然，只有野生动物才是自然。尽管我们不知道各个国家野生动物的数量，我们知道野生动物数量是基于土地面积。中国土地面积是960万平方公里，地球土地/陆地面积是1.49亿平方公里。这是地理。那中国土地面积占地球土地面积 = 9.6百万/149百万 = 1/16. 中国的森林，草原覆盖率低于世界的平均水平。中国的野生动物数量最多达到世界的1/16. 中国是有很多苍蝇，蚊子，但那些是无脊椎动物。无脊椎动物没有脊椎，没有血液循环系统，与人这样的脊椎生命身体完全不同。无脊椎动物的病毒完全不会感染人。所以无脊椎动物就不考虑了。本文的野生动物指脊椎动物，不指无脊椎动物。

        If virus is from nature or wild animal,then it can happen in the wild animal in any country in the world, Asia,Europe, Africa, Australia, North America, South America, not just China. Oneexample in math. Mary has 3 children in a school that has 15 students total.One of 15 students won a prize. What is the probability that the one winningprize is from Mary’s children? Solution: Single Probability = Eventspace/Sample space = 3/15 = 1/5. So the probability that the one winning prizeis from Mary’s children is 1/5.

         如果病毒来自自然或者野生动物，那可能发生在地球上任何国家，亚洲，欧洲，非洲，澳洲，北美洲，南美洲，都有可能，不单是中国。一个数学例题。玛丽有三个孩子在一个学校，该校共15名学生，其中一名学生获了奖。问获奖学生来自玛丽的孩子的可能性是多少？解：单一可能性 = 事件空间/样本空间 = 3/15 = 1/5. 玛丽孩子获奖的可能性是1/5.

         Now China has one portion of land. Theworld has 16 equal size of land. What is the probability that Sars 2002 happenin the wild animal in the land of China? Solution: Single Probability = Eventspace/Sample space = 1/16. The probability that Sars happen in the wild animalin the land of China is 1/16.

        现在中国有一份土地，地球有16份面积相同的土地。2002年的萨斯发生在中国的野生动物的可能性是多少？解：单一可能性 = 事件空间/样本空间 = 1/16. 萨斯发生在中国土地上野生动物的可能性是1/16.

        Then China has one portion of land. Theworld has 16 equal size of land. What is the probability that Covid-19 happenin the wild animal in the land of China? Solution: Single Probability = Eventspace/Sample space = 1/16. The probability that Covid-19 happen in the wildanimal in the land of China is 1/16.

        然后中国有一份土地，地球有16份面积相同的土地。2019年的武汉肺炎发生在中国的野生动物的可能性是多少？解：单一可能性 = 事件空间/样本空间 = 1/16. 武汉肺炎发生在中国土地上野生动物的可能性是1/16.

        Next are Sars 2002 and Covid-19independent or dependent events? If Event A does not change the likelihood ofEvent B, then these two are independent. In our daily life, after Event Ahappen, we do not talk about Event B before Event B actually happen. Forexample, one buying a car and one like fish are independent. After one buying acar, we do not say he/she likes fish unless we truly see that person like fish.If Event A changes the likelihood of Event B, then these two are dependent. Forexample, one buying a car and one able to travel far are dependent. After onebuying a car, we say he/she is able to travel far before he/she actually doesso. After Sars 2002 happened, for over ten years people do not talk aboutCovid-19 is likely or unlikely to happen. So Sars 2002 and Covid-19 areindependent events. Joint Probability of two independent events = Probabilityof Event A x Probability of Event B.

        接下来2002年萨斯和2019年的武汉肺炎是独立还是相关的事件？如果事件A发生不影响事件B发生的可能性，那这两者就是独立的。在我们日常生活中，事件A发生后，在事件B发生前，我们不谈论事件B. 比如一个人买车和他是否吃鱼是独立的两个事件。一个人买车后，我们不会说他喜欢吃鱼，除非我们真看到他喜欢吃鱼。而如果事件A发生会改变事件B发生的可能性，那这二者就是相关的。比如一个人买车和他能远行是两个相关的事件。一个人买车后，我们就可以说他能远行，即便我们没有看到他远行。在2002年萨斯爆发后十几年期间，人们没有说武汉肺炎会发生或不会发生。所以2002萨斯和2019武汉肺炎是两个独立的事件。在数学里，两个独立事件连续发生的可能性 = 事件A可能性 x 事件B可能性。

         Then what is the joint probabilitythat both Sars 2002 and Covid-19 happen in the wild animal in the land of Chinaas claimed by Chinese Communist Party?

         共产党说2002萨斯，2019武汉肺炎两次病毒都来自中国的野生动物，那么这样的可能性是多少呢？

        Solution: Joint Probability =Probability of Sars 2002 happen in the wild animal in the land of China xProbability of Covid-19 happen in the wild animal in the land of China = 1/16 x1/16 = 1/256. The probability for Chinese Communist Party that both viruses isfrom the nature in China to be true is 1/256.

        解：两独立事件的连续可能性 = 2002 萨斯发生在中国土地野生动物的可能性 x 2019

               武汉肺炎发生在中国土地野生动物的可能性

                = 1/16 x 1/16

                =1/256

               中共的说的两次病毒都来自中国自然的可能性是1/256.

        Probability of both Viruses from naturein China + Probability of Sars 2002 from Nature in China and Covid-19 from labin China + Probability of Sars 2002 from lab in China and Covid-19 from naturein China + both viruses from the lab in China = 1, Probability of both virusesfrom the nature or wild animal in China = 1/256.

        两次病毒都来自中国自然的可能性 + 2002萨斯来自中国自然，2019武汉肺炎来自中共实验室的可能性 + 2002萨斯来自中共实验室，2019武汉肺炎来自中国自然的可能性 + 两次病毒都来自中共实验室的可能性 = 1. 两次病毒均来自中国自然或野生动物的可能性 = 1/256.      

        Then at least one virus of Sars 2002and Covid-19 is from the lab in China = 1 – 1/256 = 255/256 > 99%. What isthe demarcation line to believe or conclude? In math, the highest confidencelevel is 99%, the most commonly used is 95%. Therefore, we conclude either Sars2002 or Covid-19 or both are from the lab in China. China has violated theBiological Weapons Convention that China accepted in 1984.

        那么2002萨斯和2019武汉肺炎至少一种来自中共实验室的可能性 = 1 – 1/256 =255/256 > 99%. 相信或者下结论的标准是多少？数学里，相信的最高标准是99%，最常用的是95%。所以我们下结论，2002萨斯或者2019武汉肺炎或者两者都来自中共实验室。共产党违背了它1984年批准的禁止生物武器国际公约。        

        Situation A, Both viruses are from thelab in China, then Covid-19 is from the lab in China. Simple.

        情形A, 两种病毒都来自中共实验室，那么显然2019武汉肺炎来自中共实验室。

        Situation B, there is one and only onevirus is from the lab in China.

        情形B,有且只有一种病毒来自中共实验室。

        Scenario 1, Sars 2002 is from the labin China and Covid-19 is not from the lab in China, Covid-19 still infectspeople in 2021, meaning Chinese Communist Party from 2002 to 2021 becomesmilder.

       情形1，2002萨斯来自中共实验室，2019武汉肺炎不来自中共实验室。2021年2019武汉肺炎继续感染人。就是说从2002到现在2021年中共是更加温柔了。

        Scenario 2, Sars 2002 is not from thelab in China and Covid-19 is from the lab in China, meaning Chinese CommunistParty from 2002 to 2021 become more belligerent or more like fighting.

        情形2，2002萨斯不来自中共实验室，2019武汉肺炎来自中共实验室。就是说从2002年到2021年中共是更加凶残了。        

        What happened today is already history.In domestic affairs of China, around 2002, there is no concentration camp inXinjiang, China, and Hongkong has its freedom. Since 2014, over 300concentration camps set up in Xinjiang, China, imprisoning over 1 millionMuslims. In 2020, China enacted Hongkong Security Law and Hongkong lost itsfreedom. In foreign affairs of China, around 2002, there is no big foreigninvestment. Since 2013, China on average every year invested over 100 billionU. S. dollars to do big projects including energy, transport, in over 100countries in the world, so-called, Belt and Road, trying to grab big influencein those countries. Around 2002, China said to America, “You give us more time,and we let China have more democracy.” In 2021, China said to America, “Chinesepeople does not accept American democracy at all.” In military, around 2002,there is not a single military plane of China crossed the median line of TaiwanStrait. Since 2019, military planes of China crossed the median line of TaiwanStrait. With in a single day of April 2021, 25 military planes of China crossedthe median line of Taiwan Strait. 25 modern military planes, capable of precisestrike, is enough to fight a battle. Clearly, from 2002 to 2021, in domesticaffairs, foreign affairs, military of China, Chinese Communist Party becomesall more belligerent, not milder.

        今天发生的事情已经是历史了。在中共的国内事务方面，2002年左右，新疆没有集中营，香港有自由。2014年起，新疆建了300座以上的集中营，关押上百万的穆斯林。 2020年中共实行香港国安法，香港没有自由了。在中共的国际事务方面，2002年左右中共没有大笔资金投资外国，2013年起平均每年中共投资1,000亿美元到一百多个国家，进行能源，运输等重大工程，所谓一带一路，意图对这些国家产生大的影响力。2002年左右中共对美国说，“你给我们更多时间，我们让中国有更多民主。”2021年中共对美国说，“中国人民根本不接受美国的民主。”在中共的军事方面，2002年左右，没有一架中共军机越过台湾海峡中线。2019年起中共军机越过了台湾海峡中线。2021年4月的一天，25架中共军机越过了台湾海峡中线。25架具备精确打击能力的战机足够打一场战役了。显然，从2002年到2021年，中共在国内事务，国际事务，军事方面都变得更加凶残，而不是更加温柔。

        Therefore, in Situation B of one virusfrom the lab in China, we reject or eliminate Scenario 1 that Sars 2002 is fromthe lab in China and Covid-19 is not from the lab in China, Chinese CommunistParty become milder, and accept Scenario 2 that Sars 2002 is not from the labin China and Covid-19 is from the lab in China, Chinese Communist Party becomemore belligerent. Therefore both Situation A both viruses from the lab in Chinaand Situation B one virus from the lab in China leads to Covid-19 is from thelab in China.

        所以在有一种病毒来自中共实验室的情形B里，我们排除情形1，2002萨斯来自中共实验室，2019武汉肺炎不来自中共实验室，中共变得更温柔，而接受情形2，2002萨斯不来自中共实验室，2019武汉肺炎来自中共实验室，中共变得更凶残。于是情形A两种病毒均来自中共实验室，情形B一种病毒来自中共实验室，都显示2019武汉肺炎来自中共实验室。

        Conclusion: Covid-19 is from the lab inChina.

        结论：2019武汉肺炎来自中共实验室。

        The end of this essay.

        本文完