侯芷明魏京生:中国社会危机濒临爆炸

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侯芷明魏京生:中国社会危机濒临爆炸

【阿波罗新闻网 2013-12-16 讯】作者：玛丽﹒侯芷明(汉学家) 魏京生(持不同政见者）

11月9日至12日召开的有376名成员的中共中央委员会第18届三中全会显现了推动未来经济与社会改革的愿望。但其主席习近平的工作报告却自相矛盾。比如他提到“市场在资源配置中起决定性作用”，但又“坚持公有制主体地位，发挥国有经济主导作用。”

无论如何，概括起来是必须“坚持党的领导。”这次全会的主要结果好像是成立一个直属中共中央领导之下的“国家安全委员会”，从而表明中共18届三中全会毫无新意地继续着由邓小平在1978年制定的经济开放，但政治上坚持更为严厉镇压的政策。

*（中共）政权的恐惧*

既然中国已经建有包括司法部、国防部、公安部、警察、武装警察部队等完整的安全体系以及整套的镇压系统，那为什么还要再建立一个安全委员会呢?其原因就是恐惧笼罩中国最高领导层。中共领导人担心社会爆炸，而驱使他们不断拿出更多的钱来"维稳"，以至于很单纯的人都不禁要问：党的真正的唯一的敌人是不是全体人民?

中共党内有一些有影响力的干部也希望政治改革。如因1989去世而造成了过去四十年中最重要的民主抗议运动的胡耀邦之子胡德平，就是希望开放的象征。

这些人坚持建立真正的民主及在其之上重新分配财富的需要。他们的民主并不是习近平的前任胡锦涛爱说的“中国特色的民主”。

但政改的时机有可能已经逝去。中国有句话：“改革亡党，不改亡国。”中国之所以没有西方前共产主义国家所经历的民主发展进程，是因为中国的富裕阶级害怕失去既得利益，而穷人也希望能尽快致富。

一些人盲目追求成功，接受任何不合理的工作和工资条件，另一些人则害怕他们的巨额财富被剥夺。所以，得过且过。。。

*有钱人已移民海外*

但同时，根据胡润百富2012年7月的报告，超过60%的中国富人或是已经移民国外，或是已经填好移民表格;他们之中超过85%的有钱人将子女送到国外最好的大学去留学。中国社会两极分化不断扩大。

如果按照基尼系数计算社会不平等的规模为0-1，而任何大于0.4是社会动乱的预兆。中国的指标在2012年底已接近0.5。根据这些数据，中国社会普遍的反抗不久就会爆炸。这也说明为什么中国亿万富翁及中共高级领导人会害怕。

事实上，习近平完全被其同行及官僚机构所包围。他在2012年11月刚上台时有关取消名叫“劳教”的行政拘留营的建议已经告吹。一些省份实施了，另一些没有，没有人知道余下的故事...

如果中共走上政改之路，其官员和高级管理人员就会受损，也没有人知道法律之下新的党领导的下场。

以三中全会前刚被判处终身监禁的政治后台很硬的薄熙来为例。他的后继者可能会做的，将不是静静地等待被逮捕和肯定会的判刑，而是采用武力。

*官员的腐败及财富*

的确，有关财富的信息变得更加准确，并导致更多的愤慨。六月份，彭博新闻社估计习近平家族的财富为5亿美元。而纽约时报在十月份发表它有关前总理温家宝家族拥有27亿的继续调查出的报告。这两个媒体的中英文网站都已被完全封锁。

腐败和裙带关系的罪恶还没有完全在人们面前爆炸。如何解释仅仅是上海的一个警察局长就在他的家里藏有200万美元的现金?难道是因为他在主要由台湾、日本、韩国和其他亚洲商人占据的静安区?

最近发生在天安门广场和山西以及其它地方的爆炸案只是社会重大危机的初步征兆而已。1989年提出“和平，理性，非暴力”口号的天安门广场示威面对如今越来越没有暴力底线的专制还能重演吗?

--玛丽·侯芷明(汉学家)和魏京生(前持不同政见者)

魏京生：反对邓小平政策的头号持不同政见者，被囚于1979年至1997年。他目前流亡在美国。

玛丽·侯芷明：汉学家及中国团结主席。她与伯纳德·德波合作了传记"不屈不挠的魏京生"(蓝色中国，2005年)。

China: the Explosion of Violence is Close


The Monde.fr|19/11/2013 at8:17• Updated19/11/2013 at14h51|
By Marie Holzman(sinologist) and Wei Jingsheng(former dissident)
The376 members of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China met on Nov.9 to12 with the willingness to deliberate coming economic and societal reforms. However, the work report by its President Xi Jinping had some contradictory phrases, such as:"The function of the market is decisive in allocating resources" and yet"we must maintain the dominant role in our system of collective ownership and continue the state-directed economy."
Anyway, to summarize, Xi Jinping means"we must keep the leadership of the Communist Party". It seems that the main result of this plenum was the creation of a new Commission, called the"Committee of State Security" directly under the central government. It is therefore means to continue without change much of the economic reform policy implemented in1978 by Deng Xiaoping while maintaining even stronger political repression.
* REIGN OF FEAR*
As the Chinese system already has the ministries of justice, the national defense, security, and its police, armed police, and a variety of tools of repression, why there is need to establish a new committee? That is because fear reigns in the highest echelons of power. Leaders fear social explosion and that is what drives them to put more money into"maintaining stability" to the point that one wonders if the only real enemy of the Communist Party is the entire Chinese people.
There exists a minority of influential officials within the Party who would like to see real political reforms. Hu Deping, son of Hu Yaobang, whose death in1989 had caused the most important movement of democratic protest of the last forty years, symbolizes the desire for openness.
The people around him insist on the need to begin to redistribute wealth, while laying the foundations of a true democracy-- not the"democracy to the characteristics of China" beloved by Hu Jintao, the predecessor Xi Jinping.
But the time for implementing political reforms may be already passed. As is colloquially said in Chinese:"If the Communist Party reforms, it will be finished. If the party does not reform, China will be finished." The reason that China did not follow the steps of the democratic development of former communist countries of the West is because the emerged wealthy class is worried about losing its vested interest, while the poor still hope to soon reach some easement.
For some, the blind desire to succeed made them accept indecent working conditions and wages; while for others, the fear of losing their acquired wealth makes them disillusioned. So, each day that passes is a day gained...
* THE RICHEST HAVE ALREADY EMIGRATED*
Meanwhile, according to a study published in the Hurun Report in July2012, more than60% of the richest Chinese have already emigrated or filled out the forms necessary to emigrate, while more than85% of them have sent their children to study the best universities abroad. Social polarization is growing.
According to the Gini coefficient, which calculates social inequality on a scale of0-1, any number greater than0.4 is a harbinger of social unrest. The Chinese coefficient was already close to0.5 at the end2012. If we rely on these numbers, widespread social revolt can no longer be delayed in China, which would explain the anxiousness of billionaires and senior party officials.
In fact, President Xi Jinping is completely surrounded by peers and its bureaucracy. The proposals made by Xi when he took power in November2012 to remove administrative detention camps called"laojiao" have fizzled. Some provinces have implemented this decision, some have not, and nobody knows the rest of the story...
Officials and senior executives have too much to lose if the party embarked on political reform; what's more, nobody knows what would happen if a new member of the party leadership were to fall under the law.
Bo Xilai, who was sent to life in prison right before this3rd plenum, was an example. What his successor will do probably will involve force, rather than waiting quietly for arrest and certain conviction.
* CORRUPTION AND FORTUNE OF OFFICERS*
Indeed, the information becomes more accurate about the wealth and causes a growing indignation. In June, Bloomberg News estimated the wealth of the family clan of Xi Jinping to be somewhere near$500 million. In October, the New York Times published its continued investigation on the wealth of the clan of former prime minister Wen Jiabao valued at a total of"at least$2.7 billion". The sites in English and Chinese of both media are now completely blocked.
The evils of corruption and nepotism yet explode in everyone's eyes. How to explain how a simple police commissioner in a district of Shanghai was taken with$2 million in cash hidden in his drawers? Is it because he was in the Jing'an District, which is primarily occupied by Taiwanese, Japanese, Korean and other Asian businessmen?
Recent explosions in Tiananmen Square and the recent attacks that occurred in Shanxi Province and elsewhere are the first symptoms of a major social crisis. Facing a dictatorship that applies violence without a bottom line, will the pacifist slogan"peaceful, rational and non-violence" by the activists in Tiananmen Square in1989 be able to replay again?
- Marie Holzman(sinologist) and Wei Jingsheng(former dissident)
Wei Jingsheng is a prominent political dissident to Deng Xiaoping's policy. He was imprisoned from1979 to1997. He currently lives in exile in the United States.
Marie Holzman is a Sinologist and president of Solidarité Chine. She is also co-author with Bernard Debord's biography"Wei Jingsheng, an inflexible Chinese"(Blue China,2005).




阿波罗网责任编辑：王笃若　　　　　　　　　来源：魏京生基金会